Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 18.02% in September 2025, marking a significant 2.1 percentage point decrease from the 20.12% recorded in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.
The September figures mark the sixth consecutive month of disinflation, following a series of methodological changes introduced earlier in the year, including a new base year and a reweighted consumer basket. Inflation had previously peaked at nearly 35% in December 2024.
On a year-on-year basis, the September 2025 inflation rate was 14.68 percentage points lower than the 32.70% recorded in September 2024. Month-on-month, the headline inflation rate stood at 0.72%, a slight decrease from the 0.74% recorded in August, indicating a modest slowdown in price increases.
Food inflation, which carries the largest weight in Nigeria’s CPI basket, fell sharply to 16.87% in September from 21.87% in August, driven by improved harvests and better supply chain conditions. On a monthly basis, food prices declined by -1.57%, compared to a 1.65% increase in August — a drop of 3.22 percentage points. The fall was attributed to lower prices of staple items such as maize, grains, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
The latest inflation numbers come shortly after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took a more accommodative stance in September by cutting its benchmark interest rate — the first such move since 2020. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to a data-driven monetary policy, stating that efforts remain focused on achieving single-digit inflation over the medium term.
In urban areas, the year-on-year inflation rate stood at 17.50% in September 2025, compared to 35.13% in September 2024, reflecting a 17.63 percentage point decline. However, on a month-on-month basis, urban inflation rose slightly to 0.74% in September, up from 0.49% in August. The twelve-month average for urban inflation stood at 24.35%, down from 33.95% in the same period last year.
In rural areas, inflation stood at 18.26% year-on-year in September 2025, a 12.23 percentage point drop from 30.49% in September 2024. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation was 0.67%, lower than the 1.38% recorded in August 2025. The twelve-month average rural inflation rate was 22.08%, compared to 29.76% in September 2024.
The sustained moderation in inflation provides a potential policy window for further economic adjustments. However, analysts caution that structural issues such as food insecurity, currency volatility, and supply chain bottlenecks may still pose risks to long-term price stability.
