The naira showed signs of stability on Monday in the official market, with the US dollar trading around ₦1,382 – ₦1,500 at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).
Since early March, the naira has traded within a range of ₦1,352/$ to ₦1,398/$. Analysts suggest that a sustained move above ₦1,400/$ in the official market could pave the way for a return to ₦1,450/$.
According to real-time data, the local currency traded at an average of ₦1,382.18 per dollar in Monday’s morning session, following a closing rate of ₦1,384.25 on Friday, March 27, signaling a marginal appreciation of 0.15% as trading resumed for the final week of the quarter.
Market stability has been supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) refined Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), with liquidity remaining a key driver. Turnover at the official window reached approximately $172.9 million in the last full trading session of the previous week.
External reserves, currently holding steady near the $50 billion mark, represent a significant recovery from 2024 lows and provide the CBN with ample room to defend the currency against sudden shocks.
High global crude prices, with Bonny Light trading above $103 per barrel, continue to ensure a steady stream of foreign currency inflows.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment is showing positive signs. Headline inflation has been on a sustained downward trajectory, recently recorded at 15.06%. Combined with a steady Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 26.5%, this disinflationary trend has bolstered investor confidence in naira-denominated assets.
Further supporting optimism, the IMF recently revised Nigeria’s 2026 GDP growth estimate to 4.4%, citing advancements in the ICT and services sectors. This growth forecast effectively sets a “floor” for the naira’s value.
On the global front, the US dollar approached a 10-month high and is on track for its largest monthly gain since July last year, amid conflicting signals from the US and Iran that have dampened hopes for a quick resolution to tensions in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s new leaders have been “very reasonable,” even as additional US troops were deployed to the region and Tehran warned it would not tolerate humiliation.
The ongoing Iranian conflict has effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows. Markets reacted sharply, pushing Brent crude toward a record monthly increase. Since early March, the US dollar has benefited from its safe-haven status, with higher oil prices negatively affecting Japan and the euro zone but providing support to the US currency.
