The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, describing the outlook as the country’s fastest growth pace in more than a decade.
According to the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast was upgraded to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent projected in its June 2025 edition, while the 2027 estimate was retained at the same level.
The upward revision signals sustained optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term economic prospects and reflects improving macroeconomic conditions, despite persistent structural challenges.
The forecast comes amid signs of near-term recovery, with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The World Bank said the projected expansion would be driven largely by continued growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest pickup in non-oil industrial activity.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the Bank said, noting that services and agriculture would remain the main pillars of economic performance over the forecast period.
It added that ongoing economic reforms particularly in the tax system alongside prudent monetary policy are expected to support economic activity and enhance macroeconomic stability.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” the report stated.
These measures, the Bank said, should help improve investor confidence and further ease inflationary pressures. Higher crude oil production is also expected to offset weaker global oil prices, supporting fiscal revenues and strengthening Nigeria’s external position.
The emphasis on non-oil sector growth underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s diversification efforts aimed at reducing dependence on crude oil exports. Stronger performance in services and agriculture could help generate employment, stabilise prices, and broaden the government’s revenue base over time.
For policymakers and investors, the World Bank’s outlook offers cautious reassurance that recent reforms are beginning to yield measurable results, even as the economy remains exposed to domestic and external risks.
Beyond Nigeria, the Bank projected that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa would strengthen to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by policy reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation.
Globally, growth is expected to remain resilient, easing slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, an upward revision from the Bank’s June forecast reflecting moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, despite elevated geopolitical and climate-related risks.
