Nigeria lost 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, with nearly two-thirds of the reported losses occurring in the final quarter of the year, even as revenue collected by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission declined by N2.14tn, The Telegraph reports.
The commission’s 2025 annual report, released on Thursday, showed that crude oil and gas revenue fell from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42tn in 2025, representing a 17.03 per cent decline, despite increased receipts from gas flare penalties, signature bonuses and concession rentals.
According to the report, crude oil theft rose sharply in the fourth quarter, when 2.19 million barrels were recorded. This accounted for 65.8 per cent of the total reported losses for the year and was nearly five times the 440,434 barrels recorded in the third quarter.
The commission recorded 896,471 barrels of crude theft in the first quarter, while its second-quarter report showed a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, which it attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.
The quarterly figures brought the total reported crude theft for the year to approximately 3.33 million barrels.
The report stated, “Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter.
“The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume in its reconciliation. Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter. The fourth quarter recorded 2.19 million barrels, the highest quarterly volume of the year.”
The losses occurred amid a significant increase in expenditure on securing the country’s petroleum assets. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported energy security costs of N8.67tn in 2025, compared with approximately N3.1tn in 2024.
The expenditure covered interventions aimed at protecting oil and gas infrastructure and strengthening national energy security, although the entire amount cannot be attributed solely to efforts to combat crude oil theft.
The continued loss of crude oil alongside rising security expenditure raises concerns about the effectiveness of existing measures to safeguard production facilities and crude evacuation infrastructure.
Beyond the immediate financial losses, the stolen crude represents potential government revenue, export earnings and feedstock that could otherwise have been supplied to domestic refineries.
Despite the reported theft, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025. Production stood at 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter, 137.69 million barrels in the second, 137.45 million barrels in the third and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter.
The country also produced 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate during the year.
On revenue performance, oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, remained the commission’s largest revenue source, generating N8.97tn in 2025, compared with N11.08tn in 2024.
This represented a decline of N2.11tn, or 19.03 per cent, during the period.
The report further disclosed that the commission had an approved budget of N645.46bn for 2025, generated total income of N342.81bn and incurred expenditure of N304.53bn.
It stated that total revenue generated stood at N10.42tn, representing 63 per cent of the projected N16.54tn for the year.
The report also revealed that 357 oil spill incidents were recorded in 2025, with sabotage accounting for 49.5 per cent of the cases.
It added that revenue increased by 64.74 per cent in 2024 compared with 2023, before declining by 20.53 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.
However, not all revenue streams recorded declines during the period.
Receipts from gas flare penalties rose by 56.27 per cent, from N391.26bn in 2024 to N611.42bn in 2025.
Signature bonuses also increased by 44.2 per cent, rising from N369.58bn to N532.94bn, while concession rentals climbed by 61.1 per cent, from N23.71bn to N38.19bn.
Miscellaneous revenue increased from N35.20bn to N46.44bn.
Conversely, royalty by price declined from N313.72bn to N213.41bn, while receipts from lease renewals fell sharply from N230.73bn in 2024 to N8.23bn in 2025.
Meanwhile, the commission’s income from cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue increased by 21.85 per cent to N342.81bn in 2025, up from N281.34bn in 2024.
The report showed that cost of revenue collection accounted for N335.45bn, while internally generated revenue contributed N7.36bn.
Overall, the commission generated N10.42tn against its projected revenue target of N16.54tn, achieving 63 per cent of its target amid persistent crude oil theft and declining royalty receipts.
