Presidency projects single-digit inflation amid economic recovery

Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs in the Office of the Vice President, Dr. Tope Fasua.
The Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Tope Fasua, has assured Nigerians that the country’s inflation rate is on a steady decline and could reach single-digit levels in the near future, a development he says will lead to improved living conditions for ordinary citizens.

Speaking during an appearance on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday, Fasua said the easing inflation is already having an impact on food prices, which are beginning to stabilize across the country.

His comments followed the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which revealed that headline inflation in August 2025 dropped to 20.12%, down from 21.88% in July 2025 — a decrease of 1.76 percentage points.

“A 20.12% inflation rate is still high by many standards, but the important point is that the rate of increase is slowing. Prices are still rising, but not as sharply as before,” Fasua explained.

“This trend is due, in part, to a long-overdue rebasing of our inflation metrics, which gives us a clearer picture of the economy. The rebasing should have been done six years ago. Some may still believe inflation is closer to 30%, but that’s simply not supported by the data.”

Fasua dismissed recent claims by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who said Nigerians are “dying of hunger,” calling it a political statement aimed at gaining traction ahead of the 2027 elections.

“He’s entitled to his opinion, that’s politics. But the rest of us should stick to the facts,” Fasua said.

“Inflation doesn’t rise forever. Even in neighboring Ghana, inflation was at 40% but has since dropped significantly. The same happened in Pakistan. Nigeria will follow suit, it’s only a matter of time.”

Fasua also noted that the naira has strengthened, trading at around N1,497/$1, marking the first time in eight months that the exchange rate entered the N1,400 range. He attributed this improvement to market-driven forces and a more stable foreign exchange environment.

In addition, Fasua highlighted recent positive developments in food production and pricing.

“This year, for the first time in 26 years, we didn’t see the usual spike in tomato prices. In fact, some farmers are even complaining that food prices are too low and affecting their margins. That’s a sign of stability returning to the market.”

He emphasized that both crude oil prices and the exchange rate — two major drivers of inflation — are stabilizing, which supports the broader downward trend in inflation.

According to the NBS, the month-on-month inflation rate for August 2025 was 0.74%, significantly lower than 1.99% in July. Meanwhile, food inflation on a monthly basis stood at 1.65%.

On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation dropped by 12.03 percentage points from 32.15% in August 2024 to 20.12% in August 2025, reflecting the most significant year-on-year decline in recent years.

The NBS noted that this decline came under the revised base year of November 2009 = 100, which was adopted to provide a more accurate representation of price movements.