Nigeria must generate at least 27 million new formal jobs over the next five years to prevent unemployment and underemployment rates from rising to 30 percent, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned.
This projection is contained in the NESG’s latest Jobs and Productivity Report, released on Monday alongside the opening of its 31st annual summit (NES#31) in Abuja.
Describing the next half-decade as “critical” for stabilising the labour market, the report warned that without urgent action, millions of working-age Nigerians would remain stuck in low-productivity, informal employment. It projects that Nigeria’s working-age population will hit 168 million by 2030, heightening the need for large-scale job creation.
“With the working-age population projected to reach 168 million by 2030, the country faces a defining challenge: to create 27 million new formal jobs or risk unemployment and underemployment rates doubling to 30 percent,” the report stated.
The report highlights several structural challenges limiting employment expansion, including a weak private sector base, a mismatch between workforce skills and industry needs, an underperforming education system, and persistent patterns of jobless growth that have failed to translate GDP gains into employment. It also points to regulatory bottlenecks and widespread infrastructure deficits as critical obstacles to competitiveness and private sector expansion.
To reverse this trend, the NESG called for coordinated reforms across government and industry. It identified sectors with high employment potential—such as manufacturing (including agro-processing), construction, ICT, and professional services—as key to absorbing labour from low-productivity sectors and driving structural transformation.
According to the report, these sectors are expected to contribute 35 percent (or 9.7 million) of the new jobs needed, with the manufacturing sector alone projected to account for 21 percent.
The NESG emphasised the urgent need for a national Jobs and Productivity Agenda, warning that failure to act decisively would undermine Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and social cohesion. The group stressed that raising productivity and boosting private sector growth would require sustained collaboration between government, industry, and development partners.
“More urgent than ever, Nigeria needs a coordinated and sustained approach to create decent jobs and raise productivity. Success will depend on stakeholder collaboration, robust data systems, continuous monitoring and evaluation, and, most importantly, strong political will to implement necessary reforms,” the report noted.
To guide this process, the NESG outlined the Nigeria Works Framework, built around six strategic pillars: skills development, sector-driven job growth, enterprise-led expansion, improved data systems, institutional accountability, and enhanced productivity. The framework is based on a mix of data analysis, scenario modelling, case studies, and stakeholder consultations aimed at ensuring Nigeria achieves inclusive and sustainable job creation over the coming years.
