Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged down to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The marginal decline defied earlier projections by analysts who had forecast inflation could rise to about 19 per cent in January.
The report showed the Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, a 3.8-point drop. The bureau said the headline rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the December figure.
On a year-on-year basis, inflation stood at 15.10 per cent in January 2026, representing a sharp 12.51 percentage-point decline from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.
Month-on-month, inflation contracted by 2.88 per cent in January, compared to a 0.54 per cent increase in December, indicating a decline in the average price level during the month.
The NBS stated that the percentage change in the average CPI for the 12 months ending January 2026, compared with the previous 12-month period, was 21.97 per cent, 4.37 percentage points higher than the 17.59 per cent recorded in January 2025.
Urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 29.45 per cent in January 2025. On a monthly basis, urban inflation fell by 2.72 per cent, compared to a 0.99 per cent increase in December. The 12-month average for urban inflation was 22.30 per cent.
Rural inflation came in at 14.44 per cent year-on-year, compared to 25.04 per cent a year earlier. Month-on-month, rural inflation declined by 3.29 per cent, against a negative 0.55 per cent in December. The 12-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03 per cent.
Food inflation slowed significantly to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, 20.73 percentage points lower than the 29.63 per cent recorded in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 6.02 per cent, compared to a negative 0.36 per cent in December.
The NBS attributed the moderation to price reductions in items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef and cassava. The 12-month average food inflation rate eased to 20.29 per cent from 38.47 per cent a year earlier.
Core inflation which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.27 per cent in January 2025. Month-on-month, core inflation fell by 1.69 per cent, compared to a 0.58 per cent rise in December. The 12-month average core rate was 22.84 per cent, lower than 27.24 per cent recorded a year earlier.
At the state level, Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 19.25 per cent.
Ebonyi (8.72 per cent), Katsina (8.94 per cent) and Imo (10.61 per cent) posted the lowest year-on-year headline inflation rates.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo and Ondo recorded the highest increases at 1.93 per cent and 1.932 per cent, respectively, while Cross River, Ogun and Kogi recorded the steepest declines at negative 6.34 per cent, negative 6.30 per cent and negative 6.03 per cent.
For food inflation, Kogi posted the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue (18.38 per cent) and Adamawa (17.29 per cent), while Ebonyi, Abia and Imo recorded the slowest increases in food prices.
