The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026, raising it to 4.4% from the 4.2% forecast in October 2025. The update was published in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook and unveiled on Monday.
The upgrade reflects broader assessments of global economic conditions, which the Fund expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s improved outlook is part of a gradual, region-wide economic strengthening rather than an isolated revision.
Nigeria’s revised forecast builds on a period of significant economic adjustment, marked by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic balance. The October 2025 report had expressed caution due to lingering inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, and structural challenges. Since then, policymakers have continued pursuing reforms to enhance fiscal coordination, stabilize the economy, and boost productivity across key sectors.
The IMF has consistently stressed that structural reforms are essential for sustainable growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund raised regional growth projections from 4.0% to 4.1% for 2025, and from 4.3% to 4.4% for 2026, reflecting a broad-based recovery. Globally, the IMF expects growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, in line with the estimated 3.3% in 2025.
The Fund attributes this stability to a balance of headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions. Global inflation is projected to ease, with headline inflation declining from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, and further to 3.4% in 2027.
