The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slightly reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, citing mounting concerns over the impact of U.S. trade tariffs on the world economy.
According to a Reuters report citing OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report, the group now anticipates demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 1.4 million bpd. Both figures represent a 150,000 bpd downward revision from last month’s forecast.
As of Monday, the price of OPEC’s basket of twelve crudes dropped to $66.25 per barrel, down from $70.85 the previous Friday, based on OPEC Secretariat data.
The drop in oil prices follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of broad-based trade tariffs—measures that have triggered a trade war, elevated consumer prices, strained manufacturing activity, and disrupted international trade. Although the tariffs have been temporarily suspended for 90 days, the uncertainty they’ve introduced continues to rattle markets.
In addition to trade tensions, plans for increased oil production by OPEC+—which includes OPEC members and allies like Russia—have further contributed to downward pressure on prices and raised concerns about slowing economic growth.
Reflecting this uncertainty, OPEC lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.0% from 3.1%, and trimmed the 2025 forecast to 3.1% from 3.2%. Last month, OPEC had maintained steady projections, stating the global economy would adjust to ongoing trade issues. However, the April report acknowledges that “recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook.”
Despite these headwinds, oil prices held earlier gains after the report’s release, with Brent crude trading near $66 a barrel, supported in part by U.S. tariff exemptions. Nonetheless, prices have declined more than 10% so far this month.
OPEC’s outlook for oil demand remains relatively bullish compared to other industry projections. While the group expects continued growth for years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) maintains that demand could peak later this decade as cleaner energy alternatives gain traction. The IEA is set to release updated demand forecasts on Tuesday.
On the supply side, OPEC+ crude production dipped by 37,000 bpd in March to 41.02 million bpd, largely due to reduced output from Nigeria and Iraq. The alliance is expected to raise production in April and again in May as it gradually rolls back earlier cuts implemented to stabilize the market.
However, not all members are aligned with the agreed quotas. Kazakhstan, which has regularly exceeded its OPEC+ production targets, increased output again in March by 37,000 bpd, pushing its total to 1.852 million bpd—well above its January–March quota of 1.468 million bpd. The country’s energy ministry acknowledged the overproduction and pledged to meet its obligations in April, partially offsetting previous excesses, according to Interfax.
An industry source told Reuters that Kazakhstan’s oil output declined in early April from the March average, though it remained above the agreed quota.
These developments come on the heels of a virtual meeting on April 3, 2025, during which eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reassessed market conditions and agreed to implement a combined production adjustment of 411,000 bpd in May. This figure includes the previously planned May increment, plus two additional monthly increases.
OPEC+ emphasized that the phased increases could be paused or reversed depending on evolving market dynamics. The group also stated that this adjustment offers member countries a chance to accelerate compensation for past overproduction.
The eight-member bloc will reconvene on May 5 to determine production levels for June.
