Oil prices rose on Monday after OPEC+ members reaffirmed plans to hold production steady, easing concerns over oversupply.
Brent crude futures gained $1.01, or 1.62%, to $63.39 a barrel at 05:01 WAT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added $1, or 1.71%, to $59.55. Both contracts had fallen on Friday for the fourth consecutive month—their longest losing streak since 2023—amid expectations of higher global supply.
Adding to market volatility, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) halted exports after a major drone attack, and rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela fueled concerns about potential supply disruptions.
OPEC+ initially agreed to a production pause in early November, slowing efforts to regain market share amid fears of a supply glut. Following a meeting on Sunday, the alliance said it “reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments.” Analysts said the move was widely anticipated by markets.
Geopolitical concerns
US-Venezuela tensions intensified over the weekend. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump suggested that “the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed, creating fresh uncertainty given the country’s status as a major oil producer. On Sunday, Trump said he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro but offered no details, leaving markets uncertain about the implications.
In a client note, ING analysts said, “Supply risks increase following additional Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.”
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports over 1% of global oil and has Russian, Kazakh, and US shareholders, suspended operations after a mooring at its Russian Black Sea terminal was damaged by a Ukrainian drone strike, according to trade and refining sources.
In Europe, rising uncertainty around a Russia-Ukraine peace deal also supported prices. Earlier optimism that a deal might allow more Russian oil into the market had pressured prices lower over the past two weeks. Ukraine’s military reported that it targeted a Russian oil refinery and the Beriev military aviation plant in the Rostov region on Saturday.
The combination of OPEC+ production restraint and geopolitical risks has helped oil markets recover from recent losses, though uncertainty remains high.
