Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,300, citing robust Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and sustained central bank buying.
“We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate,” the bank said, as reported by Reuters.
As of 2:30 AM WAT on Tuesday, spot gold was trading around $3,960 per ounce, after hitting a new all-time high of $3,977.19 earlier in the session.
Gold prices have surged by 51% year-to-date, driven by aggressive central bank purchases, increased demand for gold-backed ETFs, a weakening US dollar, and rising retail interest in gold as a hedge against geopolitical and trade-related risks.
Goldman Sachs expects central banks—particularly from emerging markets—to continue diversifying their reserves into gold, projecting average purchases of 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026.
Western ETF holdings are also anticipated to rise as the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026, further increasing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
“In contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable. Following the large September increase, the level of Western ETF holdings has now fully caught up with our US rates-implied estimate, suggesting the recent ETF strength is not an overshoot,” Goldman noted.
